Death to TV!

So I'm reading another of those "Death to TV" pieces (read it here))... you know the ones ... assailing TV of every known sin to media-kind since Adam bit the apple and posted it on his blog ...

Well ... in many respects I sort of am inclined to agree with the guy ... Henry Blodget ... who says ...

"You won't have 5 channels, or 50 channels, or 500 channels. You'll have millions of channels. You'll be able to watch anything you want, live or taped. You'll be able to watch it wherever you want--TV, computer, mobile device. You won't have to sorry about "slinging" video content around or programming your DVR. You'll just plug a pipe (Internet) into a box (device) and watch."

Of course this has been the prevailing drumbeat of the last ... oh ... decade. Still waiting on it to happen, of course ... but, there are signs.

This guy .. Blodget ...though, contends that the TV industry is sitting with blinders on in the paddock ... "The traditional TV industry--cable companies, networks, and broadcasters--is where the newspaper industry was about five years ago:

In denial."

And I guess I disagree at this point.

And don't rest assured that it will be a better world for all us raving video junkies if we did witness the demise of the traditional TV model.

Lets' assume for just a minute that you actually will be able to view millions of channels on everything from your mobile phone to your 47 inch flat screen to, oh, I don't know ... your rear-view mirror ...

There will be a high cost of access.

Imagine what your Cable company will do to your monthly bill based on the massive bandwidth used by your household. Because without that you are screwed.

And if there are 200 channels now with nothing on ... imagine what navigating a million will look like ...

In the meantime, the "traditional" TV and Cable Networks are chugging along on their path of reinventing themselves. yes, that's right ... I did say reinventing ...

I think they would be more than happy to turn over the game of ad sales to the likes of Hulu, YouTube, MySpace, Joost, blah,blah,blah and let them figure out, in a new highly commoditized media world, ... transacted by all-mighty exchanges ... just how to make money on those millions of fragmented impressions.

In the meantime ... those old traditional warhorse TV Networks methodically go about the business of incubating and creating ...content.

And they do it with access to the biggest most robust entertainment industry resources out there. This, it seems to me, is the business that traditional TV is cornering the market on.

Let's see ... Mr. Blodget believes that ...

The best content creators will do just fine. Video storytelling won't go away.
(DMG believes that the Networks - and even more decidedly the Cable Nets - seem to know what this is all about, since they got back to the drawing board about 5 years ago ...)

The lousy content creators will disappear. No big loss. And no big change.
(DMG couldn't agree more! Cya CurrentTV,)


The cable companies will become dumb pipes, and they'll get disintermediated. The phone companies will remain dumb pipes.

(But they will just be rich dumb pipes ... and my monthly bill will still be huge!)

The wireless companies will become dumber pipes.

(But they will be mobile, rich dumb pipes ... and my monthly bill will be even huger!)

The competition between the multiple dumb pipes will eventually, we pray, result in lower prices for consumers for the only thing we will really need: Ubiquitous high-speed Internet access.

(DMG disagrees. We supposedly have that choice now ... and my monthly bill is still off the charts. It's just that I go through a bi-monthly dance of threatening to cancel, or changing my service and buy someone elses at a few dollars less a month ... as the total charge reverts back to steady upward trajectory in subsequent months ... arrrrrgggghhh!)

Box and device companies will remain box and device companies. Unless Apple somehow creates a new global chokepoint via the iPhone.

(I have seen what Apple can do ... and I believe!)

Networks that produce live news, sports, and entertainment will offer the content direct to consumers.

(Through that same expensive bandwidth pipeline ...)

A few clever online aggregators--YouTube? Hulu? Cable companies? Netflix?--will create nice video portals and build powerful new businesses

(Hey - I though Blodget called those cable companies just a bunch of big dumb pipes ... ah ... whatever! and YouTube? Clever? ... just not clever enough to make money or be a content aggregator of content that will ... make money that is)

And don't forget that Hulu is out there right now trying to charge me a higher cpm for the same TV crap I buy on TV now. How does that work out to be a better model down the road ...???

I'm not sure ... but did I hear Blodget at some conference 5 years ago telling me that in 5 years Newspapers would be dead ...?? Nope, didn't think so.

UPDATE: 6-16-09 and for a decidedly different spin ...The 'YouTube Is Doomed' Guy Has More to Say - AdAge

Where-in ... "reacting to a recent report by Credit Suisse that suggested that YouTube was on track to take in $240 million in ad revenue in 2009, against operating costs of $711 million, for a net shortfall of just over $470 million."

Ouch!